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Hydrologic loads can stimulate seismicity in the Earth’s crust1. However, evidence for the triggering of large earthquakes remains elusive. The southern San Andreas Fault (SSAF) in Southern California lies next to the Salton Sea2, a remnant of ancient Lake Cahuilla that periodically filled and desiccated over the past millennium3,4,5. Here we use new geologic and palaeoseismic data to demonstrate that the past six major earthquakes on the SSAF probably occurred during highstands of Lake Cahuilla5,6. To investigate possible causal relationships, we computed time-dependent Coulomb stress changes7,8 due to variations in the lake level. Using a fully coupled model of a poroelastic crust9,10,11 overlying a viscoelastic mantle12,13, we find that hydrologic loads increased Coulomb stress on the SSAF by several hundred kilopascals and fault-stressing rates by more than a factor of 2, which is probably sufficient for earthquake triggering7,8. The destabilizing effects of lake inundation are enhanced by a nonvertical fault dip14,15,16,17, the presence of a fault damage zone18,19 and lateral pore-pressure diffusion20,21. Our model may be applicable to other regions in which hydrologic loading, either natural8,22 or anthropogenic1,23, was associated with substantial seismicity. 

Abstract Stratigraphic evidence for coseismic subsidence has been documented in active-margin estuaries throughout the world. Most of these studies have been conducted in subduction zone or strike-slip settings; however, the stratigraphic response to coseismic subsidence in other tectonic settings would benefit from further study. Here we show evidence of late Holocene coseismic subsidence in a structural estuary in southern California. Below the modern marsh surface, an organic-rich mud containing marsh gastropods, foraminifera, and geochemical signatures indicative of terrestrial influence (mud facies) is sharply overlain by a blue-gray sand containing intertidal and subtidal bivalves and geochemical signatures of marine influence (gray sand facies). We use well-established criteria to interpret this contact as representing an abrupt 1.3 ± 1.1 m rise in relative sea level (RSL) generated by coseismic subsidence with some contribution from sediment compaction and/or erosion. The contact dates to 1.0 ± 0.3 ka and is the only event indicative of rapid RSL rise in the 7 k.y. sedimentary record studied. Consistent with observations made in previous coseismic subsidence studies, an acceleration in tidal-flat sedimentation followed this abrupt increase in accommodation; however, the recovery of the estuary to its pre-subsidence elevations was spatially variable and required 500–900 years, which is longer than the recovery time estimated for estuaries with larger tidal ranges and wetter climates. 

In Southern California, plate boundary motion between the North American and Pacific plates is distributed across several sub-parallel fault systems. The offshore faults of the California Continental Borderland (CCB) are thought to accommodate ∼10–15% of the total plate boundary motion, but the exact distribution of slip and the mechanics of slip partitioning remain uncertain. The Newport-Inglewood-Rose Canyon fault is the easternmost fault within the CCB whose southern segment splays out into a complex network of faults beneath San Diego Bay. A pull-apart basin model between the Rose Canyon and the offshore Descanso fault has been used to explain prominent fault orientations and subsidence beneath San Diego Bay; however, this model does not account for faults in the southern portion of the bay or faulting east of the bay. To investigate the characteristics of faulting and stratigraphic architecture beneath San Diego Bay, we combined a suite of reprocessed legacy airgun multi-channel seismic profiles and high-resolution Chirp data, with age and lithology controls from geotechnical boreholes and shallow sub-surface vibracores. This combined dataset is used to create gridded horizon surfaces, fault maps, and perform a kinematic fault analysis. The structure beneath San Diego Bay is dominated by down-to-the-east motion on normal faults that can be separated into two distinct groups. The strikes of these two fault groups can be explained with a double pull-apart basin model for San Diego Bay. In our conceptual model, the western portion of San Diego Bay is controlled by a right-step between the Rose Canyon and Descanso faults, which matches both observations and predictions from laboratory models. The eastern portion of San Diego Bay appears to be controlled by an inferred step-over between the Rose Canyon and San Miguel-Vallecitos faults and displays distinct fault strike orientations, which kinematic analysis indicates should have a significant component of strike-slip partitioning that is not detectable in the seismic data. The potential of a Rose Canyon-San Miguel-Vallecitos fault connection would effectively cut the stepover distance in half and have important implications for the seismic hazard of the San Diego-Tijuana metropolitan area (population ∼3 million people). 

Abstract Observations of shallow fault creep reveal increasingly complex time‐dependent slip histories that include quasi‐steady creep and triggered as well as spontaneous accelerated slip events. Here we report a recent slow slip event on the southern San Andreas fault triggered by the 2017M_w8.2 Chiapas (Mexico) earthquake that occurred 3,000 km away. Geodetic and geologic observations indicate that surface slip on the order of 10 mm occurred on a 40‐km‐long section of the southern San Andreas fault between the Mecca Hills and Bombay Beach, starting minutes after the Chiapas earthquake and continuing for more than a year. Both the magnitude and the depth extent of creep vary along strike. We derive a high‐resolution map of surface displacements by combining Sentinel‐1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar acquisitions from different lines of sight. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar‐derived displacements are in good agreement with the creepmeter data and field mapping of surface offsets. Inversions of surface displacement data using dislocation models indicate that the highest amplitudes of surface slip are associated with shallow (<1 km) transient slip. We performed 2‐D simulations of shallow creep on a strike‐slip fault obeying rate‐and‐state friction to constrain frictional properties of the top few kilometers of the upper crust that can produce the observed behavior.